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February 11, 2025

Albertsons vs. Kroger: Merger Meltdown

Hi Enthusiast,

Reality mirrors HBO: Rupert Murdoch’s children are said to have watched an episode of Succession and, spurred by its drama, drafted a memo to avoid a messy inheritance feud. Ironically, it seems they may have sparked their own version of the chaos: their ongoing family dispute is now playing out in court.

In market news, the Nasdaq surged past the 20,000 mark for the first time yesterday, driven by strong gains in major tech stocks. Tesla also hit a new peak, marking its highest value since 2021. Meanwhile, the November inflation numbers came in as expected, fueling speculation that the Fed might implement a quarter-point rate cut in their upcoming meeting.

Albertsons vs. Kroger: Merger Meltdown

Grocery drama unfolds… After a federal judge blocked their $25B merger, Albertsons (ACI $19.53, +0.10%) is officially cutting ties with Kroger (KR $61.15, -0.10%)—and suing for billions. Albertsons claims Kroger didn’t do enough to satisfy regulators, leading to the deal’s collapse. Over the past two years, the two grocery giants collectively spent over $1 billion trying to finalize the merger, only to see it unravel.

Deal detour: In an attempt to ease regulatory concerns, the companies agreed in July to sell 600 stores to a smaller competitor. But Albertsons now alleges Kroger resisted further divestitures, which may have sealed the deal’s fate.

Market monopoly fears: The proposed merger aimed to create a $200B grocery titan with 720K employees, but regulators warned it could suppress wages and lead to local monopolies. Kroger and Albertsons argued the deal was essential to compete with powerhouses like Amazon (AMZN $219.60, -0.86%), Walmart (WMT $90.44, -0.19%), and Costco (COST $916.50, -0.64%).

A victory for Lina Khan’s FTC… and maybe its last. Blocking the merger marks a significant win for the Biden administration’s FTC, led by Lina Khan. During her tenure, the FTC and DOJ challenged mergers across industries, including Big Tech, aviation, healthcare, and even mattresses, quadrupling opposition to billion-dollar deals compared to prior administrations. However, with President-elect Trump set to take office, antitrust enforcement could shift.

M&A on the rebound? Goldman Sachs analysts predict a 20% surge in mergers during Trump’s first year. His pick for FTC chair, Andrew Ferguson, is expected to take a more merger-friendly stance, having opposed several FTC rules as a Republican commissioner. Trump’s election has already buoyed shares of merger-ready companies like Frontier, Discover (DFS $173.23, +0.59%), and Capital One (COF $178.32, +0.22%).

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Stories to Keep an Eye on

Crypto on Edge:
The crypto world was rattled this week following a striking announcement from Google, which some investors feared could shake the very core of Bitcoin’s security. On Monday, the tech giant unveiled its latest "quantum chip," Willow, claiming it solved a complex calculation in under five minutes — a task that would take current supercomputers 10 septillion years to complete. The crypto community’s worry? Quantum computing could one day crack the encryption that secures Bitcoin and other digital currencies, potentially undermining the integrity of the entire $2 trillion blockchain ecosystem.

Cracking the Code: Bitcoin users rely on private keys — unique alphanumeric codes paired with a public key — to authorize transactions. Quantum computers could theoretically break this encryption, putting these digital assets at risk.

Bitcoin’s Dip: Following Google’s announcement, Bitcoin’s price dropped, but by yesterday, it had largely regained the losses, signaling that investors remain cautiously optimistic.

Staying Calm: Despite the looming threat posed by quantum computing, the crypto industry didn’t hit panic mode. Key figures like Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin pointed out that just as quantum technology evolves, so too do blockchain systems. The possibility of "quantum-proofing" cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana could be just a few software updates away. After all, Bitcoin has adapted before — in 2021, it successfully integrated the Taproot upgrade to enhance security, privacy, and efficiency.

A Threat Down the Road: While Willow's quantum leap could have far-reaching benefits in fields like drug discovery and weather prediction, its potential to break crypto encryption remains a distant concern. For now, the computation it solved has no commercial use, meaning any threat to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is likely years, if not decades, away.

Quick Signals
  • Ro teams up with Eli Lilly: Telehealth startup Ro has partnered with Eli Lilly (LLY $772.12, -0.17%) to offer more affordable vials of Zepbound, the pharma giant’s blockbuster weight-loss drug, through its platform.
  • Inditex feels the pinch: Zara’s parent company, Inditex, reported quarterly sales growth of 9%, slowing as budget-conscious shoppers turned to cheaper options like Shein and H&M.
  • Nike secures NFL deal: Nike (NKE $75.63, +1.40%) renewed its exclusive contract to supply NFL uniforms through 2038, despite the league briefly considering alternative bids.
  • JetBlue adds “junior Mint” first class: JetBlue (JBLU $7.85, -2.00%) announced plans to introduce a premium “junior Mint” first class on select domestic flights, while Frontier (ULCC $7.11, +0.07%) is also rolling out its own first-class option.
  • Macy’s accounting mishap: Macy’s (M $16.82, +1.04%) uncovered $151M in accounting errors caused by a single employee, leading to a delayed earnings call and significant internal fallout.
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