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February 11, 2025

Pharma Giants Compete in the Weight-Loss Drug Race as US Demand Soars

Hi Enthusiast,

This year, Sabrina Carpenter has dominated the TikTok charts in the US, while over in the UK, "espresso" emerged as one of the most mispronounced words — it’s espress-o, not express-o!

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on Friday, marking its third consecutive week of gains, fueled by a favorable jobs report that struck a balance investors were hoping for. Bitcoin also saw a strong surge on Friday, briefly touching $101K before leveling off around $94,552.75.

Pharma Giants Compete in the Weight-Loss Drug Race as US Demand Soars

Pound for pound... Prescription fills for weight-loss drugs, including Novo Nordisk’s (NVO $85.90, +0.34%) Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s (LLY $772.12, -0.17%) Zepbound, have more than doubled in the US this year, according to GoodRx (GDRX $4.64, +3.33%). Even with many Americans lacking insurance coverage for the injections, which cost around $1,000 per month, demand has surged. As many as 25,000 new users are starting the treatments every week.

Battle of the scales... Eli Lilly recently claimed its Zepbound injection helped patients lose around 20 pounds more than Wegovy after an 18-month trial with 751 participants.

Big stakes... Analysts predict Zepbound could become the best-selling drug ever, with annual sales reaching $27 billion by 2030, while Wegovy is expected to generate nearly $19 billion.

The Ozempic effect... The shortage of GLP-1 injections over the last two years has spurred telehealth companies to launch affordable alternatives for around $200/month. Hims (HIMS $24.23, -3.97%), which began offering compounded GLP-1s in May, has seen its shares triple this year. However, the FDA declared the shortage over in October, which may slow the production of weight-loss alternatives. Meanwhile, pharma companies are pushing ahead with their own weight-loss drugs.

R&D on the rise... Novo Nordisk is testing an oral obesity pill that outperformed Wegovy in early trials, and Amgen (AMGN $260.70, +0.51%) recently revealed that its experimental drug MariTide helped patients lose up to 20% of their weight in a year.

Appetite for growth... The weight-loss drug market is projected to reach $150 billion by 2033, with demand showing no signs of slowing. The Biden administration proposed expanding Medicare and Medicaid coverage for weight-loss drugs, but while 93 million Americans meet medical qualifications, only 52 million are covered by government health plans. Big Pharma is lobbying for broader GLP-1 coverage, which could shape how obesity treatment is prioritized in the public health system.

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Stories to Keep an Eye On

Power Play: In a bold move last week, President-elect Trump nominated Paul Atkins, a staunch crypto supporter and member of the Digital Chamber of Commerce’s advisory board, to take the helm at the SEC. Should the Senate confirm him, Atkins would step in to replace Gary Gensler, who has been tough on crypto and is set to depart next month. Coincidence or not, Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 threshold just hours after Atkins’ nomination. The cryptocurrency market has been riding high since last month’s election, with expectations that the new administration will take a more lenient approach to digital asset regulation.

AI and National Security: The Biden administration made a pivotal shift last month by authorizing the use of AI in national security, sparking a rush of partnerships in the tech sector. OpenAI has teamed up with Anduril, a defense contractor, to advance drone capabilities, while Anthropic has collaborated with Palantir to create cloud applications for defense. Meta is now offering its AI models for military use, and Nvidia is positioning its technology to help governments develop their own AI-powered defense systems. However, the involvement of major tech firms like Google in national security AI initiatives has drawn its share of controversy. Despite the backlash, with AI companies facing mounting financial losses, defense contracts may provide a crucial lifeline to their bottom lines.

Quick Signals
  • Fortnite's throwback success: Epic Games' new "Fortnite OG" mode, which brings back the original version of the game, attracted a million players in just 20 minutes.
  • TikTok’s looming ban: Federal judges have upheld legislation that could lead to TikTok’s ban in the US (where it has 170 million users) unless it is sold by early January.
  • Job market rebounds: US employers added 227,000 jobs last month, indicating that the low hiring numbers in October were likely a temporary dip caused by storms and strikes.
  • Presented by Gray Scale

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    No crypto wallet? No problem.

    Bit by bit… Diversify your portfolio with Bitcoin exposure, wherever you invest. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (ticker: BTC) is one of the most affordable1 ways to gain exposure to Bitcoin through your existing brokerage account (though brokerage fees may still apply). That’s right — you don’t need a separate crypto wallet like you would to hold actual Bitcoin. You can invest in BTC the same way as any ETF.

    For the crypto-curious… Grayscale is a great place to start. They’ve been offering exposure to crypto through familiar investment vehicles for over a decade. Today, they offer a suite of over 20 different funds covering Solana, Filecoin, Chainlink, and others for investors to choose from.

    Type BTC on your preferred investment platform to check out the Bitcoin Mini from Grayscale. Think crypto, invest Grayscale.2

    Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF ("BTC"), an exchange traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (or the ’40 Act) and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 1940 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds.

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    ³ December 23, 2024 will be the last day to invest and be considered a shareholder in 2024. Any investments made after this date will only be considered shareholders starting in 2025.

    Please read the offering circular and related risk at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors because it is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. It should only be considered a long-term investment. You must be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are also highly illiquid, and there is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities.
    DealMaker Securities LLC, a registered broker-dealer, and member of FINRA | SIPC, located at 105 Maxess Road, Suite 124, Melville, NY 11747, is the Intermediary for this offering and is not an affiliate of or connected with the Issuer. Please check our background on FINRA's BrokerCheck.

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