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February 28, 2025

UK inflation surged to 3% in January, marking a significant spike.

Hi Enthusiast,

The United States and the United Kingdom share a number of commonalities, from language and music to films. As of this week, they've also found themselves aligned on a more economic front: inflation rates. Both nations are now experiencing a 3% annual price increase, a figure that was recently revealed in the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This marks a 10-month high for the UK, matching the inflation rate reported by the US just the week before. However, while inflation is a shared concern, the causes differ slightly. In the UK, airfares, rising food costs, and more expensive private school fees were blamed, with the BBC noting that private school fees soared by 13% after the removal of the VAT tax exemption.

In comparison, the US has seen some notable price hikes in specific categories, such as eggs, but the UK’s inflationary pressure is driven more by travel and education costs. Despite the similarities in inflation figures, the two nations are facing different challenges in managing their economies. With inflation exceeding the Bank of England’s 2% target, the institution’s balancing act has become even more precarious. The Bank is trying to keep prices under control while simultaneously fostering economic growth, which has been tepid at best, with the UK economy registering a mere 0.1% growth in Q4 of last year.

The task of managing these economic pressures has grown more complicated, yet investors on both sides of the Atlantic remain optimistic that interest rates will start to fall this year. According to Bloomberg data, futures markets are predicting a reduction of 39 basis points in US rates by 2025, while a 50 basis point cut is expected for the Bank of England. Despite the persistent inflation, market sentiment suggests that a rate reduction is still on the horizon, though the timing remains uncertain.

Interestingly, the inflation data didn’t weigh too heavily on UK stocks, which have performed relatively well this year. The FTSE 100 has dipped 1% since Tuesday, but this minor setback follows an otherwise strong start to 2025. In fact, UK stocks are outperforming their American counterparts for the first time in years. As of now, the FTSE 100 has climbed 6% this year, surpassing the S&P 500’s 4% gain. While the US index has surged an impressive 84% over the last five years, the FTSE 100’s more modest 17% growth over the same period is looking relatively robust. Could this be a sign of a reversal in fortunes for UK equities? It’s an intriguing prospect to keep an eye on in the months ahead.

Shares of Palantir (PLTR) have taken a significant hit recently, with stock prices sliding after reports that the Trump administration may cut defense spending by 8% annually.

Additionally, a filing revealed that CEO Alex Karp has the ability to sell up to 10 million shares by September 12. These developments have caused concern among investors, leading to a steep decline in the company’s stock price, which currently sits at $88.84, reflecting a 1.67% drop. However, not everyone shares the bearish sentiment. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has a much more optimistic outlook for the data analytics giant, and he believes the market’s reaction is off-base.

In fact, Ives argues that the anticipated defense budget cuts won’t hurt Palantir as much as some think. He notes that while critics have consistently doubted the company’s prospects—from its early days at $12 per share to its rise to $120 over the past 18 months—they’re misinterpreting the potential impact of these cuts. According to Ives, Palantir’s unique software solutions are actually well-positioned to secure more IT budget dollars from the Department of Defense, not less. Despite the initial negative market reaction, he believes the company’s innovative approach will make it an even more valuable player within the Pentagon’s evolving technology landscape.

Moreover, Ives highlights that Palantir stands to benefit from a surge in government spending tied to artificial intelligence (AI). As the U.S. government allocates more funds toward advancing AI capabilities, Palantir’s expertise in data analytics and defense applications positions it well to capitalize on these trends. Ives maintains an "outperform" rating for Palantir, with a price target of $120, which suggests there’s still significant upside potential despite the recent selloff.

Adding to the company’s positive outlook, JPMorgan analysts led by Bram Kaplan have observed a notable influx of retail investor activity surrounding Palantir. In the past week alone, retail traders have poured in $286 million in net buys, signaling continued confidence in the stock. This ongoing support from individual investors suggests that the bearish narrative around Palantir may not be as widespread as it initially seemed. With its strong position in AI and defense, Palantir’s prospects remain robust, despite the current market fluctuations.

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Cruise stocks plunge following tax warning from US Commerce Secretary.

Cruise stocks took a significant hit on Thursday, following comments made by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. During a Fox News appearance on Wednesday evening, Lutnick suggested that cruise operators could soon face new tax requirements, potentially paid to a newly established External Revenue Service. This announcement caused a wave of uncertainty across the cruise industry, resulting in steep declines for several major players.

Royal Caribbean (RCL), which had been trading at $245.59, saw its stock drop by more than 11%. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Carnival (CCL) weren’t far behind, both experiencing a nearly 9% decrease in their share prices, while Viking Holdings slipped by 3%. The sudden sell-off reflected investor fears about the implications of Lutnick’s remarks, which seemed to suggest that a long-standing tax advantage enjoyed by cruise companies could soon come to an end.

Lutnick’s comments centered around the fact that many cruise companies have registered their ships under foreign flags—such as Liberia or Panama—to avoid U.S. taxes. “You ever see a cruise ship with an American flag on the back? They have flags of like, Liberia or Panama. None of them pay taxes,” he stated. He went on to suggest that this practice would no longer be tolerated under a future administration led by Donald Trump. For many in the cruise industry, Lutnick’s statement raised the possibility of increased tax liabilities, a scenario that could significantly impact their bottom lines.

Cruise companies have enjoyed strong growth in recent years, with record bookings and increased revenues per passenger as more Americans set sail. However, the possibility of new tax obligations has sparked concern among investors. For years, the cruise industry has operated with the benefit of being largely exempt from the U.S. tax system, and the idea that this could soon change has raised alarm bells. While the details remain unclear, Lutnick’s remarks have left many wondering about the future financial landscape for these major cruise operators.

Shares of Hasbro (HAS) surged by more than 11% on Thursday, making it the top performer in the S&P 500 after the company reported better-than-expected earnings.

The toy giant’s stock price jumped to $68.02, despite a slight decline of 0.77% in its overall market performance. The impressive rise was driven by a combination of factors, including a revenue beat and a strategic plan to slash $1 billion in costs by 2027, all while making key investments in its most popular brands, such as Play-Doh and "Magic: The Gathering."

Hasbro’s performance in its gaming segment caught the eye of investors, particularly the success of "Magic: The Gathering," which, despite a slight dip in sales, still managed to generate over $1 billion in 2024. This accounted for more than half of Hasbro's total gaming revenue. The company’s broader gaming segment also saw growth, with its digital and licensed gaming revenue rising by 22%, thanks in large part to the mobile hit "Monopoly Go!" which alone contributed $112 million to the bottom line.

The company also provided guidance for the year ahead, forecasting mid-single-digit sales growth despite external challenges such as tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. This outlook reflects the ongoing pressures from global trade dynamics, a factor that many toy makers, including Hasbro’s rival Mattel (MAT), are trying to mitigate. Mattel recently announced potential price hikes for popular toys like Barbie and Hot Wheels in response to tariffs. Notably, both Hasbro and Mattel source around 40% of their toys from China, making them particularly sensitive to shifts in trade policy.

Overall, Hasbro’s ability to balance cost-cutting measures with strategic investments in its core brands has positioned it well for continued growth, even amid economic uncertainties. With a focus on both traditional and digital gaming, the company seems poised to capitalize on its diverse portfolio, ensuring it remains a leader in the competitive toy and gaming markets.

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